Oil Slips as G7 Reserve Release and Middle East Exports Add Supply

Oil prices moved lower in early Asian trading Monday as recovering Middle East exports and a coordinated release from emergency reserves added supply to a market still carrying a large geopolitical risk premium.

At 2:40 a.m. GMT on October 5, Brent crude futures were down 66 cents, or 0.65%, at $101.59 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate was down 95 cents, or 1.03%, at $90.12, Reuters reported. Those are an early-session snapshot rather than closing prices and can change throughout the trading day.

G7 release adds barrels over four months

The Group of Seven said October 2 that members and partners would begin a coordinated release of 100 million barrels through the International Energy Agency. The official statement says the release will run over four months and include a substantial front-loaded diesel release within the first 20 days.

The G7 also pledged to avoid restrictions on energy exports among member countries and asked the IEA to monitor implementation and market effects. A follow-up report is due within 20 days, with recommendations that may include replenishing emergency stocks later.

The release is intended to reduce pressure on fuel markets, not to guarantee a particular retail price. Crude and diesel prices also depend on refinery availability, shipping costs, inventories, demand and the course of the regional conflict.

Middle East exports have recovered despite attacks

A fuller Reuters shipping-data review found that Middle East crude exports exceeded prewar levels on 14 days in September. The seven-day moving average reached 18.3 million barrels a day on September 30, based on provisional Kpler data, while attacks on tankers kept transit risk elevated.

That recovery has required longer or more expensive routes in some cases. Security risks remain elevated: Reuters reported at least seven recent incidents involving vessels around the Strait of Hormuz, including a tanker struck by an unidentified projectile. Higher exports therefore do not mean the transportation threat has ended.

Saudi Arabia also cut its November official selling prices for Asian buyers. Reuters reported that Arab Light was reduced to a $5-per-barrel discount to the Oman and Dubai benchmark average, the lowest level in six years. Prices for northwest Europe were raised, while U.S. pricing was left unchanged.

OPEC+ holds output steady

Seven OPEC+ producers agreed Sunday to keep their current production levels through November, according to the Associated Press. The group is scheduled to review conditions again November 1.

For markets, the immediate balance is between additional barrels from emergency stocks and returning exports on one side, and conflict, vessel attacks and constrained refining on the other. That tension helps explain why crude moved lower Monday but remained above levels seen before the regional disruption.

AskNovus is also tracking the change in Iran’s oil ministry, Yemen’s announced offensive against Houthi forces, and Ukraine’s warning of intensified refinery strikes.

Sources

• Reuters, Middle East oil exports top prewar levels as tanker attacks increase, October 5, 2026
• G7 leaders’ statement on global energy security and market stability, October 2, 2026
• Reuters, Middle East crude exports and shipping risks, October 5, 2026
• Reuters, Saudi Arabia cuts November Asian oil prices, October 5, 2026
• Associated Press, OPEC+ producers hold November output steady, October 4, 2026

Featured image: Fredrick F. via Unsplash; illustrative oil tanker image.