Hurricane Trudy weakened sharply to a Category 1 hurricane Friday afternoon, October 16, after aircraft data found it far weaker than earlier estimates. A hurricane warning now covers part of Mexico’s west-central Pacific coast, with additional watches and warnings extending south and north.
The National Hurricane Center’s 6 p.m. CST intermediate advisory placed Trudy near 15.0°N, 102.6°W, about 220 miles southwest of Acapulco and 300 miles south-southeast of Manzanillo. Maximum sustained winds were 85 mph, the minimum central pressure was 982 millibars, and the hurricane was moving north-northwest at 6 mph.
Watch and warning areas
A hurricane warning covers Mexico’s coast from Manzanillo northward to Cabo Corrientes, meaning hurricane conditions are expected. A hurricane watch extends from Manzanillo southward to Punta San Telmo. A tropical storm warning is in effect from Manzanillo southward to Zihuatanejo, while a tropical storm watch covers the coast north of Cabo Corrientes to San Blas.
Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area late Friday night or early Saturday. Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane-warning area by late Saturday or Saturday night and remain possible in the watch area by late Saturday. The NHC said additional watches or warnings would likely be required Friday night.
Rain, mudslides and coastal hazards
- Michoacán, Colima and Jalisco: 4 to 8 inches of rain, with isolated totals around 15 inches, through the weekend.
- Guerrero and Nayarit: 2 to 4 inches, with isolated totals around 6 inches.
- Coast: storm-surge flooding is possible where winds blow onshore, accompanied by large and destructive waves.
- Surf: life-threatening surf and rip currents are expected to spread northward along the coast.
The steep terrain of western Mexico raises the risk that intense rain will trigger dangerous flash flooding and mudslides. Residents should follow Mexico’s national and local civil-protection agencies and avoid treating the forecast track’s center line as a precise impact boundary.
What changed
Trudy reached Category 3 early Friday, but an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter found a much weaker core by 12:35 p.m. CST. The NHC cut the analyzed wind speed from 120 mph to 85 mph and said the storm was no longer forecast to approach Mexico as a major hurricane. Slight strengthening remains possible Saturday and Saturday night; hurricane-force winds extend up to 30 miles from the center and tropical-storm-force winds up to 140 miles.
This is a separate system from Tropical Storm Simon, which has been weakening farther northwest. The Atlantic basin had no active tropical cyclones and the NHC said formation was not expected there during the next seven days.
Official updates
- National Hurricane Center: Trudy Intermediate Advisory 14A — October 16, 2026
- National Hurricane Center: latest Trudy forecast graphics — current
- Reuters: Trudy weakens but may regain strength off Mexico — October 16, 2026
Featured image: stormy ocean, photographed by Ant Rozetsky on Unsplash. The photo is illustrative and does not depict Hurricane Trudy.
[…] decline does not end Mexico’s Pacific tropical threat. Farther southeast, Hurricane Trudy rapidly intensified to Category 3, prompting a hurricane watch and tropical storm warning along a different stretch of […]