Updated Oct. 5, 2026, 2:25 p.m. EDT. The National Hurricane Center raised the chance that a disturbance in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico will become a tropical depression to 80% during the next seven days, while a separate system near Mexico’s Gulf of Tehuantepec now has a 90% seven-day chance of development.
Neither disturbance was a named storm, and the outlooks were not coastal watches or warnings as of the latest updates. The percentages describe the chance of a tropical cyclone forming, not the probability that any particular community will be hit.
Southwestern Gulf disturbance: 60% in 48 hours, 80% in seven days
In its 2 p.m. EDT Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook on Oct. 5, the NHC said a broad area of low pressure designated Invest AL92 was producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the southwestern Gulf. Forecasters expect the environment to become only marginally favorable, but said a tropical depression is likely to form by midweek.
The system should drift east before turning north later in the week. The NHC said it remains too early to determine specific impacts along the northern Gulf Coast. Residents from Texas to Florida should monitor later forecasts because track, strength and rainfall projections can change substantially before a closed circulation develops.
Eastern Pacific system: 60% in 48 hours, 90% in seven days
The 11 a.m. PDT Eastern Pacific outlook on Oct. 5 said Invest 92E was producing showers and thunderstorms near the Gulf of Tehuantepec. A tropical depression is expected to form during the next few days while the system moves west-northwest to northwest, generally just offshore of southwestern Mexico.
The NHC advised interests in southwestern Mexico to monitor the system’s progress. Formation close to the coast can shorten preparation time, but the current outlook does not identify a landfall point or issue a tropical storm watch or warning.
What to watch next
- A numbered depression or named storm would trigger formal forecast advisories with a center position, track cone and wind-radius information.
- A watch would mean tropical-storm or hurricane conditions are possible in a specified area; a warning would mean those conditions are expected.
- Until then, the NHC’s regularly updated outlooks are the authoritative source for formation chances and forecast changes.
Elsewhere in the eastern Pacific, Hurricane Rachel remained active well offshore, with no coastal watches or warnings in effect in the latest advisory. Readers can also follow AskNovus Weather coverage for material forecast changes.