An autumn outlook can favor warmer or wetter conditions over a month or season. It does not tell you whether a specific weekend will be sunny, rainy or cold.
The useful distinction
- A seasonal outlook compares the odds of above-, near- and below-normal averages.
- A local forecast describes expected weather for a place and shorter period.
- A watch or warning addresses a potential or occurring hazard and calls for closer attention.
What NOAA’s outlook maps show
NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center issues monthly and three-month temperature and precipitation outlooks. The shaded areas show where one of three categories—above normal, near normal or below normal—is favored. The maps describe the probability of a seasonal average or total falling into a category. They do not predict a particular day’s temperature or an exact rainfall amount.
“Equal chances” does not mean that every day will be ordinary. It indicates that forecasters do not have a strong enough signal to favor one of the three categories for the period and location. A season that ends above normal can still include cold snaps, storms and stretches of pleasant weather.
Use the right product for a decision
For a trip, school event or outdoor project, use your local National Weather Service forecast as the date approaches. Check it again near departure, because the details can change. For possible hazardous conditions, read the local office’s alerts and their stated timing and area rather than relying on a seasonal map.
For a household plan months ahead, a climate outlook may help you think about broad possibilities. It should not be used to claim that a specific storm, freeze or rainfall event will happen. Read AskNovus’s guide to weather watches, warnings and advisories for the alert terms, and our home heating safety checklist for seasonal preparation.
Where to check
The Climate Prediction Center publishes its outlooks and technical discussions. Weather.gov provides local forecasts, observations and official alerts. Note the date on any map you share; older outlooks can remain online after new ones are issued.
Sources
This is an explanation of forecast products, not a prediction for a specific location. Featured image: Marc Wieland via Unsplash.
[…] Residents and travelers in affected areas should use current local National Weather Service alerts and road information for decisions, because the outlook may change after this September 29 report. For background on the difference between a broad outlook and a local forecast, see AskNovus’s guide to reading weather outlooks. […]